Are El Niño-La Niña weather patterns changing?

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Last Updated25/11/2022

A new study projects that climate change will significantly impact El Niño-La Niña weather patterns approximately by 2030 — a decade before what was earlier predicted.
This is bound to result in further global climate disruptions.

Warming of sea water in central-east Equatorial Pacific occurring every few years.
During it:
surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise
trade winds (east-west winds) blowing near the Equator weaken.
Faltering in easterly trade winds that blow from the Americas towards Asia.
Change direction to turn into westerlies, bringing warm water from the western Pacific towards the Americas.
Upwelling (where nutrient-rich waters rise towards the surface) is reduced under El Niño.
Reduces phytoplankton
Disrupting multiple ecosystems
Monsoonal Impacts:
Causes dry, warm winter in Northern U.S. and Canada
Increases flooding risks in U.S. gulf coast and southeastern U.S.
Also brings drought to Indonesia and Australia

Opposite of El Niño
Sees cooler than average sea surface temperature (SST) in equatorial Pacific.
Trade winds are stronger than usual, pushing warmer water towards Asia.
American west coast - upwelling increases, bringing nutrient-rich water to the surface.
Pacific cold waters near Americas push jet streams northwards.
Leads to drier conditions in Southern U.S., and heavy rainfall in Canada.
Associated with heavy rains in Australia and India

Increased SST variability from ENSO in the eastern Equatorial Pacific (EP) will emerge around 2030 ( error margin of +/- 6 years).
If Central Pacific (CP) and EP are not separated
SST variability will occur four decades earlier than expected.
Changes in the equatorial Pacific will be visible
Due to a stronger increase in the EP-ENSO rainfall response
Leads to increased SST variability.