Crisil Projects India's GDP Growth at 6.5% for FY26
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| GDP Growth Projection | Crisil projects India's GDP growth at 6.5% in FY26, driven by domestic consumption, easing inflation, and favourable monetary policy. |
| Key Growth Drivers | - Agricultural growth (supported by above-normal monsoon) <br> - Easing inflation <br> - Interest rate cuts by RBI <br> - Income tax relief boosting disposable income. |
| Monsoon Forecast | IMD predicts an above-normal monsoon at 106% of LPA, benefiting agriculture, rural income, and related sectors like fertilizers and farm machinery. |
| Crude Oil Prices | Expected to remain subdued at $65-$70 per barrel, reducing current account deficit, transport costs, and supporting consumer spending and corporate margins. |
| Monetary Policy | RBI's MPC likely to cut repo rate by 50 bps in FY26, following a 50 bps cut until April, easing bank lending rates and boosting credit availability for key sectors. |
| Industrial Activity | - Mixed performance: IIP slowed in April due to global uncertainties <br> - Export-oriented sectors like machinery and garments grew sharply <br> - Consumer durables outperformed. |
| Infrastructure Growth | 4% growth driven by government projects in highways, railways, and ports, enhancing long-term productivity and logistics efficiency. |
| Global Risks | - Geopolitical tensions <br> - Trade disruptions (e.g., US tariffs) <br> - Sluggish demand in export markets <br> - Volatility in global commodity prices. |