Elderly up, fertility down: Why Andhra, TN are talking of kids

• As fertility rates fall, India as a country is ageing – with one in every five persons expected to be above 60 years of age by 2050. But the effect will be even more pronounced in the southern states, explaining the concerns of Naidu and Stalin.

Highlights:

1. Concerns Raised by Southern Leaders:

• Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin have expressed concerns over the ageing population in their respective states. Naidu proposed incentivizing families to have more children, while Stalin pointed out that the South’s declining fertility rates could lead to diminished political power after delimitation.

2. Ageing Trends in Southern vs. Northern States:

• According to the India Ageing Report 2023 by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), the southern states are witnessing faster growth in their elderly population compared to the northern states.
• By 2036, the elderly population in Kerala is expected to rise from 16.5% to 22.8%, in Tamil Nadu from 13.7% to 20.8%, in Andhra Pradesh from 12.3% to 19%, and similar increases are projected for Karnataka and Telangana. In contrast, northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh will see a rise of around 3-4%.

3. Fertility Rates and Life Expectancy:

• Fertility rates in southern states have dropped below the national average of 2 children per adult female. Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana have fertility rates of 1.5, while Karnataka’s is 1.6. Life expectancy is also higher in the South compared to the national average of 68.2 years, contributing to the growing elderly population.

4. The ‘Ageing Index’ and Dependency Ratios:

• The ageing index, which measures the number of elderly people per 100 children, is significantly higher in the South and West. Southern states are projected to have 61.7 elderly people per 100 children by 2036, while the North and Central regions will have lower ratios. Similarly, the old-age dependency ratio, comparing elderly people to the working-age population, is expected to be higher in the South.

5. Rapid Fertility Transition in India:

• India’s transition from high fertility rates to lower rates occurred rapidly, taking only 45 years to drop from six children per woman to 2.1. This quick transition, similar to China’s due to its one-child policy, has left South Indian states "older before getting richer," unlike Western nations that took centuries for similar transitions.

6. Political Impact of Delimitation:

• The impending delimitation after the next Census may reduce parliamentary representation for southern states due to lower birth rates. Andhra Pradesh’s seats may drop from 25 to 20, Kerala from 20 to 14, and Tamil Nadu from 39 to 30, while northern states are likely to gain seats, amplifying their political voice.

7. Challenges of Incentivizing Births:

• Experts like Irudaya Rajan argue that incentivizing more children, as Naidu suggested, is unlikely to reverse the ageing trend. Previous attempts in Europe and East Asia to increase birth rates through incentives have largely failed.

Prelims Takeaways:

• United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
• International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)