IMD: Second warmest November since 1901

• This warming trend has continued since the post-monsoon season in October, and could contribute to making 2024 the warmest year ever on record, globally.

Highlights:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared November 2024 as the second warmest in 123 years, continuing a post-monsoon warming trend that could contribute to making 2024 the warmest year on record globally.

Key Temperature Highlights

Maximum Temperatures:

• Average monthly maximum temperature: 29.37°C (0.62°C above normal).

Minimum Temperatures:

• Average monthly minimum temperature: 16.91°C (1.05°C above normal).

Factors Behind Warmer November

• Weak Western Disturbances:
  • Western disturbances, typically bringing rainfall or snow to northwest India, crossed at higher latitudes.
  • This resulted in minimal precipitation across plains and less cooling in northern India.
• Lack of Cyclonic Disturbances:
  • Only two low-pressure systems formed in the Bay of Bengal, of which only one intensified into Cyclone Fengal.
  • Historically, November is favorable for cyclonic activity, which was notably absent this year.
• Rainfall Deficit:
  • Northwest India: 2.4mm rainfall, a deficit of 79.9% from normal.
  • Southern Peninsular India: Deficit of 37.9% due to weak northeast monsoon conditions.

Long-Term Trends and Concerns

• Declining November Rainfall:
  • IMD data (2001–2024) reveals that November rainfall has been normal or above normal in only six out of 24 years.
  • Decline in precipitation linked to weaker western disturbances and lower cyclonic activity.
• Global Warming Contribution:
  • The consistent rise in temperatures post-monsoon aligns with global warming trends, exacerbating the risk of extreme weather events and climate irregularities.

Implications for India

• Agricultural Impacts:
  • Warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall affect winter crops, especially in rainfed areas dependent on post-monsoon precipitation.
• Water Resource Challenges:
  • Reduced rainfall strains reservoirs, impacting drinking water supplies and hydropower generation in affected regions.
• Climatic Patterns:
  • Declining rainfall and rising temperatures emphasize the need for adaptive measures to address evolving climate challenges.

Prelims Takeaways

• Cyclone Fengal
• India Meteorological Department (IMD)