Kerala urgently needs to identify risk zones

• On July 30, 2024, two villages in Wayanad, Kerala, were devastated by landslides, resulting in 231 deaths and 41 missing individuals. This catastrophic event has exposed Kerala's vulnerability to natural disasters and raised critical questions about the state's approach to disaster management.
• With an increasing frequency of such events, Kerala must rethink its development strategies and adopt a more comprehensive, community-driven disaster management approach.

Kerala: From Relatively Safe to Disaster-Prone:

• Kerala, once considered a relatively disaster-free region due to its geographical advantages with the Western Ghats to the east and the Arabian Sea to the west, has seen a dramatic increase in disasters over the last few decades.
• The state's geographical zones—coastal areas, midlands, and highlands—are now frequently hit by floods, landslides, and coastal erosion.
• While the state’s infrastructure and settlements have developed without much consideration for natural drainage and slope stability, the rising intensity of natural disasters calls for a reappraisal of development models. In particular, the Western Ghats, prone to landslides, have seen significant human interventions that exacerbate the risk of disasters.

Landslide Vulnerability in Wayanad:

• Wayanad, located along the Western Ghats and known for its deep gorges and ravines, is particularly vulnerable to landslides due to its geological setup. The spatial correlation between earthquakes and landslides has been observed, with tremors often felt post-landslide events, as was the case after the July 2024 disaster.
• A comprehensive understanding of the causative factors of landslides, which currently focus on simplified parameters like slope and rainfall intensity, is needed to devise effective mitigation strategies.

Need for Landslide Inventory and Susceptibility Mapping:

• To address the growing threat of landslides, Kerala needs to develop a landslide inventory map for each region. This map should take into account geological factors like lithology, tectonics, soil characteristics, and vegetation cover, along with human activities such as mining and agriculture.
• Based on this, a landslide susceptibility map should be created to identify high-risk zones. By monitoring rainfall and other triggering mechanisms, early warning systems can be developed, potentially saving lives.

The Role of Climate Change:

• The increased occurrence of landslides and other natural disasters in Kerala can also be attributed to climate change. Rising sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea have increased the frequency of extreme weather events like cyclones and floods.
• For example, Cyclone Ockhi in 2017 was one of the most severe cyclonic storms to hit Kerala in recent memory, and the 2018 floods were described by the World Meteorological Organization as the “floods of the century,” directly linked to climate change.

A Paradigm Shift in Disaster Management:

• Kerala’s current disaster management strategies are largely reactive, focusing on rescue, relief, and rehabilitation. However, there is a need for a paradigm shift towards a more proactive approach that emphasizes preparedness, resilience, and risk reduction.
• The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction offers guidelines for such a shift, advocating for disaster risk zones to be identified using both physical and social components, and for the creation of permanent disaster databases.

Community Participation and Bottom-Up Approach:

• An essential aspect of this new approach is community-based disaster risk management. Kerala's People’s Plan Campaign has demonstrated the potential for active community participation in local governance.
• Involving at-risk communities in disaster risk mapping, planning, and implementation can foster better communication, reduce conflicts, and integrate disaster management into local development.
• A quadruple helix model involving the community, academia, government, and industry could be effective in building resilient communities that are better prepared for future disasters.

Conclusion: Building a Resilient Future for Kerala:

• The Wayanad landslides underscore the urgent need for Kerala to re-evaluate its disaster management practices.
• By adopting a proactive, community-driven approach that emphasizes risk reduction, preparedness, and resilience, Kerala can build a more disaster-resilient future. The integration of scientific mapping, early warning systems, and community engagement will be critical in protecting lives and livelihoods in this increasingly disaster-prone state.