Opinion and exit polls continue to be under- regulated

Contact Counsellor

CategoryPolity

Last Updated09/02/2022

Despite Election Commission’s efforts, the broad consensus from political parties, opinion and exit polls continue to undermine elections.

An exit poll is a post-election survey that is conducted immediately after people have voted to assess the support for political parties and their candidates.
An opinion poll is a pre-election survey to gather voters' views on a range of election-related issues.
As per guidelines of the Election Commission (EC), Exit poll results cannot be published till the last round of elections is over.
While there is no express ban on Opinion polls, Opinion poll results can be published only 48 hours before the voting is scheduled to begin.

Growing weaponization of opinion polls: They have been used to shape and influence, rather than just reflect, public preferences. Election outcomes are impacted by fake pre-poll surveys.
Misleading public: Since these polls carry a facade of objectivity, voters are more easily misled.
Unclear survey methodology: Most polls do not disclose basic details of their survey methods, and do not make their data public, leading to “undue influence”, which is an “electoral offence” under IPC Section 171 (C).
Sample size: Most people assume that a large sample size signifies a good survey. The notion of sample size is highly misunderstood. The selection of the sample is far more important than the size.
Fake news: Some opinion polls may be sponsored, motivated and biased.
The 255th report of the Law Commission has also called for regulation of opinion polls for three reasons-
To ensure that credentials of the organizations conducting the poll are made known to the public,
Public has a chance to assess the validity of the methods used in conducting the poll,
The public is adequately aware that the poll is in the nature of forecasts or predictions.

At two all-party meetings called by the Election Commission in 1997 and 2004, there was unanimous demand for a ban.
EC has several times approached the Law ministry seeking an amendment in the law to ban these polls. In 2010.
Restrictions were imposed only on exit polls through the introduction of Section 126(A) in the Representation of People Act 1951.
In 2013, the law ministry advised the ECI to once again seek the view of all political parties.

Freedom of speech and expression: Regulating these polls will curb this freedom.
Systematic collection of public opinion is a must in modern democracies.
People have the right to know other people’s opinions on major electoral issues so that they can make an informed decision.

Law Ministry had suggested that EC can restrict opinion polls using its powers under Article 324.
But, EC was of the opinion that, that banning opinion polls under Art 324, may not be possible due to Article 77 - all executive actions of the Centre are taken in the name of the President.
The Parliament in 2008 had restricted only the publishing of the exit polls (before completion of all phases of elections) and had put no restrictions on the Opinion Polls.
Present situation: Currently, opinion polls are barred from being published in electronic media for 48 hours prior to an election in that polling area under Section 126(1)(b) of the RP Act, 1951.

Election Commission (EC) should set standards: The EC can help voters detect fake opinion polls by defining the standards and guidelines.
Any opinion poll that does not reveal its survey methodology, sample selection technique, sample size and exact questionnaire should be considered suspect.
A robust sampling methodology: To survey a state election in India, a robust sampling methodology should choose people from every assembly constituency, identity, age group and gender.
Disclosure of survey methods: The Election Commission can mandate disclosure of detailed survey methods, raw data and prescribe minimum stratified sampling standards for pre-poll surveys.

Opinion polls do not just reflect the opinions of people but have the potential to influence the results as well.
If 30 per cent of India’s voters are vulnerable to such influence, then there is an urgent need to regulate this exercise and protect the sanctity of India’s democracy.