WTO Predicts Marginal Decline in Global Trade for 2025 Amid Tariff Tensions
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Report | WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025 |
| Key Projection | Global merchandise trade to decline by 0.2% in 2025; potential decline up to 1.5% if tensions escalate. |
| Tariff Impact | US reciprocal tariffs may cut global trade growth by 0.6 percentage points; US-China escalations could reduce trade by 0.8 percentage points. |
| Services Trade | Global services trade expected to grow by 4.0%; slower growth due to spillover effects from goods trade tensions. |
| Regional Impact | North America: -12.6% export decline; Asia: +1.6% export growth; Europe: +1.0% export growth. |
| Impact on LDCs | Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) face high vulnerability due to limited export diversification. |
| Trade Diversions | Chinese exports to regions outside North America may grow by 4% to 9%; US imports from China expected to decline, benefiting other supplier nations. |
| Economic Risks | UNCTAD forecasts global GDP growth at 2.3%; rising recession risks, especially for developing economies. |
| India's Trade Position | Merchandise Exports: Rank 14th (2.2% share); Imports: Rank 7th (3.4% share); Services Exports: Rank 6th (5.3% share); Services Imports: Rank 6th (4.1% share). |